COP30 was expected to be a nature and implementation summit, but the negotiations in Belém have revealed a deeper structural tension. Implementation and finance may headline the agenda, but a deeper contest has emerged over land, food systems and climate mitigation. Breakthrough soil science is colliding with the political influence of agribusiness and the enduring presence of the fossil fuel lobby. For investors, the implications are direct. Soil condition drives productivity, regulatory exposure, cost of capital and sovereign risk, yet remains almost entirely unpriced. What happens next will determine whether soil is finally recognised as a material climate asset or remains an overlooked externality — with consequences for how it is valued, regulated and integrated into risk frameworks across commodities, real assets, insurance, agriculture, sovereign credit and carbon markets.
Soil’s Hidden Climate Power A new Soil Security Report from Aroura, the IUCN World Commission on Environmental Law and the Save Soil movement argues that the world has fundamentally underestimated the carbon stored beneath our feet. Praveena Sridhar, chief technical office of Save Soil, says the findings “shift the scale of the global carbon budget in a meaningful way” because the analysis models the top one meter of soil and includes the varied potential of different soil types and land uses. Soil may now represent one of the largest and least governed climate levers available to governments and markets. Mark Maslin, Professor of Earth Systems at UCL, calls the findings a wake-up call. “This report shows that soils hold more carbon than we realized 45% more than previous estimates,” he says. “But all around the world soils are degrading making the land less fertile and reducing food production…If managed well they can act as sinks drawing out and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide slowing down climate change. We need soils to be included in all country NDCs so policymakers, companies and the public understand that the bedrock of their economy is their soils.” The mitigation potential is equally significant. The report states that 27% of the emissions reductions needed to keep global warming below two degrees can be sequestered in soils in good condition, equivalent to about 3.38 gigatons of CO2 each year.
The Risk Side Of The Ledger The risk is just as striking as the opportunity. Sridhar warns that “the risk is very urgent” because degraded soils can quickly flip from carbon sinks into sources and undermine food production, resilience and economic stability. Degradation, she notes, results in “unproductive land, farms that fail under climate extremes, reduced food security, and many other ripple effects from unsustainable soil use.” Land degradation is accelerating: 40% of global land is already degraded and could reach 90% by 2050. Roughly one billion hectares of the world’s agricultural land is assessed as degraded. If current trends continue, 4.81 billion metric tons of CO2 could be released annually, roughly equal to the annual emissions of the United States. Aroura estimates soil degradation as an $11 trillion annual global cost. Yet despite the scale of the risk to the economy, resilience and emissions, soil remains almost entirely missing from national climate strategies. Today, 70% of countries still do not include soil restoration in their Nationally Determined Contributions.
Political Economy: Science Meets Influence The effort to elevate soil at COP30 is unfolding against a backdrop of intense political economy. Industrial agriculture has taken a deeper interest in climate negotiations, following a similar trajectory to the fossil fuel lobby. DeSmog analysis shows that hundreds of agribusiness delegates are present at COP30, some as part of national delegations. Their presence underscores how any move to regulate soil, land use emissions or fertiliser and livestock systems will be politically contested. The fossil fuel industry remains equally present, shaping debates over energy transition timelines and land-based offsets. Soil sits at the intersection of these pressures: it is both a climate solution and a site of industrial influence. But political influence is only part of the challenge. Beneath it lies a deeper structural issue: soil has no dedicated global governance framework.
From Governance Blind Spot To Strategic Infrastructure Dr Irene Heuser of the IUCN World Commission on Environmental Law describes soil as “the poor nephew of international environmental law.” She notes that unlike oceans (UNCLOS) or the atmosphere (UNFCCC), “there is still no global monitoring of soil condition, no common definitions or protection instruments for soil health, no enforcement mechanisms, and no financial architecture for soil stewardship.” This governance gap is precisely what Aroura is focused on. Jae Yang of the Aroura Soil Security Think Tank puts it simply saying, “Science is ready, governance is not.” He argues that among the five dimensions of soil security, “codification is the most urgent for policymakers today,” because the world knows how soils function and degrade, but lacks the legal and institutional frameworks to protect them.
Financing The Restoration Gap This shift is already visible in Belém. Alongside the soil report, COP30 saw the launch of Brazil’s new RAIZ accelerator, designed to unlock investment for restoring degraded farmland at scale. The initiative is backed by nine countries and was formed in response to concern about the degradation of around one billion hectares of the world’s agricultural land. Kaveh Zahedi, director of the FAO’s Office of Climate Change, Biodiversity and Environment, said, “RAIZ represents the enormous potential before us: to bring up to a fifth of the world’s agricultural land back into more productive and sustainable use. But the benefits go far beyond restoration. It is about sustaining land for future productivity, protecting food production and food security from climate risks, and ensuring the sustainable use of biodiversity. This is what agrifood systems solutions can achieve with the right investments and partnerships." RAIZ argues that reversing even 10% of cropland degradation could restore food production for 154 million people, yet a $105 billion funding gap leaves most governments unable to act at scale. The promise of RAIZ is to help governments design co-investment mechanisms that de-risk private capital and make restoration bankable. If soil is a neglected asset, farmland degradation is a neglected liability.
Why This Matters For The Markets Soil condition is increasingly likely to influence valuations for farmland, food and beverage companies, insurers and even sovereign bonds as degradation affects collateral quality, risk ratings and long-term cash flows. Its financial relevance runs far beyond agriculture. Declining soil health affects yields, water availability, insurance losses, methane and nitrous oxide emissions, supply chain stability and national climate credibility. These stresses feed directly into sovereign credit ratings, inflation expectations and commodity price volatility. Sridhar’s argument that “what gets measured gets done” points to the future trajectory of regulation. She highlights the European Union’s €1 billion soil mapping and monitoring effort as a sign of what is coming and argues that global soil mapping is essential for unlocking climate finance and making soil carbon a “reliably assessed and therefore valuable commodity.” Soil carbon appears on a trajectory toward becoming a regulated asset class. Once soil enters NDCs or national standards, accounting rules, disclosure requirements and offset market reforms will follow. At the same time, land use policy is becoming central to climate transition risk. Even with deep cuts in fossil fuel use, current food system trajectories alone could push the 2°C goal out of reach. For corporates facing expanding Scope 3 reporting requirements, soil and land use emissions will become material issues for any sector linked to agriculture, food, retail or natural resources.
The Signal COP30 Needs To Send The question now is whether the negotiations in Belém will shift political momentum. Heuser says she wants to see soil treated as a global asset. “Soil stores around two or three times more carbon than the atmosphere,” she notes, yet soil health has only been addressed marginally within the UNFCCC. Her message for COP30 is simple: without soil protection, there will not be sufficient climate protection. Yang argues that consensus is forming but far from realized. Many governments and institutions are converging around the need for soil monitoring and restoration, he says, but the world still lacks a coherent system that values soil function and responds when soils decline. “What is needed now is a framework that translates soil’s ecological importance into value governance and action,” he says, adding that a global convention on soil security should be the next step. Sridhar sees international policy as essential. She compares the moment to the pre-Montreal Protocol era, arguing that “a strong international legal or policy mandate can drive coordinated global action.”
A Turning Point For Climate And Markets The scientific case for the protection and regeneration of soil is clearer than ever but the governance and finance architecture is lagging behind. And investors will not be able to ignore soil for much longer. Soil is emerging as one of the defining climate and economic variables of the next decade. Those who understand its carbon dynamics, regulatory trajectory and financial implications will be better positioned for the transition that is now underway. Energy has long dominated the climate discourse and investment flows. The next wave will be shaped by land. Soil is moving to the center of climate strategy, and investors who track the science, the political economy and emerging governance frameworks will be best positioned for what comes next.
